Santorum narrows gap in the polls: "Santorum narrows gap in the polls
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
BY BRETT LIEBERMAN
Of Our Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON - President Bush continues to be a drain on Sen. Rick Santorum's re-election, but support for Pennsylvania's junior senator might be on the rebound.
State Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. continues to lead Santorum 50 percent to 38 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday, but the margin is the narrowest in months of any major poll of next year's likely Senate campaign matchup. The poll has a margin of error of 2.6 percent.
The last Quinnipiac poll, released Oct. 6, showed Casey with a 52 percent to 34 percent lead.
A Patriot-News/WGAL-TV Keystone Poll found Casey led 51 percent to 35 percent.
The improvement comes after an independent group began airing $1 million in television ads that critics say was aimed at bolstering Santorum's image.
"Santorum probably bottomed out, but we'll have to wait to the next poll to see if that's true," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"I think he's just floated back up to a more realistic number, but still pretty far behind for an incumbent senator," said Richards.
The survey of 1,447 Pennsylvania voters conducted between Nov. 30 and Dec. 6 shows that Casey, who like Santorum supports abortion restrictions, could be vulnerable on the issue.
In what Richards describes as Casey's Achilles' heel, 22 percent of Democrats polled said they would not vote in the election when told Casey and Santorum's positions are the same.
"Democrats should not repeat the mistake we made in 2000 in nominating an anti-choice candidate [Ron Klink] who failed to mobilize core Democratic voters," Chuck Pennacchio, an abortion-rights supporter who is challenging Casey for the Democratic nomination, said in a statement.
Jay Reiff, Casey's campaign manager, found other factors behind Santorum's apparent rebound.
Americans for Job Security, an independent group that does not disclose its donors, "spent $1 million misrepresenting Santorum's record on Social Security," Reiff said. And he said Santorum is working to reinvent himself for the election year.
"Clearly Rick Santorum has shut his mouth. He has avoided press interviews and he stopped saying a lot of the controversial things that he has said over the last couple years," Reiff said.
Republicans said they did not want to read too much into one poll.
"This poll reflects some tightening in the race, but we don't expect to see dramatic changes until the campaigns are truly under way next year," said Virginia Davis, Santorum's campaign spokeswoman.
But noting that about one-third of voters surveyed say they haven't heard enough about Casey to have an opinion about him, "it speaks very clearly to why the Casey campaign continues to hide Bob Casey," Davis said.
"The climate right now is less than favorable to all Republicans, but Senator Santorum is going to run on his record of accomplishment," she said.
As Santorum's public approval rating rose to 35 percent, with 28 percent unfavorable, Casey's numbers also improved. Casey's favorable number rose to 40 percent from 38 percent two months earlier, and his negatives dropped from 9 percent to 6 percent.
Santorum is hurt by his support for Bush, voters said by a more than 2-1 ratio.
For the first time in a Quinnipiac poll, the war in Iraq has also become unpopular in every region of the state, with fewer than 50 percent everywhere saying it was the right thing for the United States to do. Central Pennsylvanians and voters in the northwest were evenly divided.
The poll also provided good news for Gov. Ed Rendell.
After dropping to 46 percent, Rendell's approval rating rose to 51 percent. The poll was the first time since February that it has been above 50 percent, a critical measure for incumbents.
The state Legislature did not fare as well, with 57 percent disapproving of the job that state lawmakers are doing.
"'Teflon Ed' isn't taking much grief for signing the ill-fated legislative pay raise or the failure to so far produce property tax relief," Richards said.
Rendell's support is weakest in southwestern Pennsylvania, followed by the midstate.
"But come re-election time next year, expect voters to hold him to his original campaign pledge to lower property taxes in his first term," Richards warned.
Rendell continues to enjoy wide leads over potential Republican challengers. He would defeat former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton 48 percent to 36 percent, and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann 48 percent to 35 percent, the poll showed.
Rendell's advantage grows to 52 percent to 27 percent when matched against state Senate Majority Whip Jeffrey Piccola, R-Dauphin, and 53 percent to 24 percent versus Jim Panyard, former head of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers Association.
BRETT LIEBERMAN: (202) 383-7833 or blieberman@patriot-news.com"
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